OK, stay with me here because I'm sure the headline leads you to believe that I am about to homer up an argument for Syracuse to be a No. 1 seed in the upcoming NCAA tournament. How could a team that is currently fourth in it's own conference and a team that, at one low point, lost four straight games this season be considered one of the top four in the country?
- This is all hypothetical, but it's not completely out of the question (and yes, I am an Orange homer). Let's start with the facts, as of right now Syracuse is sitting at 25-6 overall RPI of 18 according to College RPI. The Orange are in the middle of a five game win streak including road victories over then ranked Villanova and Georgetown. Next, let's look ahead to SU's projected road in the Garden (assuming the better seeded teams win); St. John's (No. 22 RPI), Pittsburgh (No. 7), and Notre Dame (No. 9) in the finals.
- For Syracuse to have a shot at a top seed they would obviously have to win the Big East tournament - so that five game streak becomes an 8 game streak and it then includes victories over the ranked Red Storm, Panthers, and Irish. Presumably, the Orange RPI would go through the roof and it would bring them to 28 victories on the season (winners of 8 out of their last 10). Pretty impressive, right?
- Of the teams supposedly being considered for number one seeds Ohio State is a lock and I think Kansas is as close to a lock as possible. Give them both their conference tournament titles (eliminating Texas and Purdue in the meantime from No. 1 seed selection), so that would then leave two No. 1 slots open. I would think Pittsburgh and possibly even Notre Dame have claims to both of those spots. Obviously, Syracuse, in my opinion, could jump those two teams by beating both in New York City (semifinals over Pitt, and championship over ND). The other teams up for one, or maybe both, one seeds are Duke and North Carolina. If UNC beats Duke again in the ACC title game the Tar Heels knock the Blue Devils out of any No. 1 consideration. Creating a mess for the committee.
- You have have six loss teams like UNC, SU, Notre Dame, and Pittsburgh (again, assuming UNC wins the ACC, and SU wins the Big East) all up for two one spots. Let's give the 'third' one spot to the Tar Heels for winning the ACC regular season and then the ACC tourney. So, Ohio State, Kansas, and Carolina have one seeds. There would then be one final spot open and, looking around, Syracuse would make just as good of a claim as anyone for that one seed.
- Effectively, SU needs to win the Big East facing the toughest competition possible and then they need help. It's more likely a run through the Garden would lead to a 2 seed, which nobody would complain about, but in a season where only a few teams have stood out, SU could fall into their second straight one seed.
I see your reasoning, but I think the bracket committee usually sees conference tournaments as a way to boost your seed a few notches. But I don't know if teams frequently play themselves in to a #1 seed (or lose their #1 seed) due to the conference tournament.
ReplyDeleteSee Syracuse's play last year, losing in their first game to G'town, losing AO, and STILL getting that #1 seed because of their stellar play all season.
So my feeling is that regardless of what Pitt does in the tournament, they are the Big East's best shot at a #1 seed just because they have been mostly dominant all season.
I agree - but I'm banking on the fact there are so many teams on the bubble for the one seed this year.
ReplyDeleteOhio State and Kansas have separated a bit, but if things go right, SU would be on fire and have as many losses as the others considered.
Again though, I agree, I would assume they vault to a two seed, but it's not inconceivable for a one. Maybe.